LSAT Explanation PT 19, S2, Q10: There are rumors that the Premier

LSAT Question Stem

Which one of the following most accurately expresses a principle of reasoning employed by the argument? 

Logical Reasoning Question Type

This is a Method of Reasoning question. 

Correct Answer

The correct answer to this question is B. 

LSAT Question Complete Explanation

First, let's analyze the argument in the passage. The passage states that there are rumors of the Premier reshuffling the cabinet this week. However, it argues that since every previous reshuffle was preceded by meetings between the Premier and senior cabinet members, and no such meetings have occurred or are planned, the rumors are most likely false. In this argument, the premise is that no meetings have occurred or are planned, and the conclusion is that the rumors are most likely false.

Now, let's consider the question type and what it's asking us to do. This is a Method of Reasoning (MOR) question, which asks us to identify a principle of reasoning employed by the argument. We should focus on the flaws and reasoning used in the argument when evaluating the answer choices.

Answer choice (A): This choice is incorrect because the argument attacks the rumors rather than supports them. The stimulus doesn't reference any premises that support the rumors, and the conclusion is probabilistic even though the premises are certain.

Answer choice (B): This is the correct answer choice. The principle states that since the author expects a shuffling to be preceded by certain meetings, when the meetings don't exist, it undermines the hypothesis that a shuffling will occur. The author doesn't consider the possibility that unexpected situations could also involve shuffling the cabinet.

Answer choice (C): This choice is incorrect because the stimulus argues that the hypothesis that the Premier will reshuffle the cabinet is unsupported by the current situation, not that the hypothesis could be false even though it is supported.

Answer choice (D): This choice is incorrect because it describes a correct principle similar, but not identical, to the one that the stimulus ignores. The stimulus ignores the possibility that meetings are only one method from a few, any of which could satisfy the necessary condition for shuffling the cabinet. This response is about causal reasoning and is not directly related to the argument in the passage.

Answer choice (E): This choice is incorrect because the stimulus is based on showing that the rumors are probably false, not on a principle that is geared toward uncertainty. The argument concludes that something is probably false, which is not the same as concluding that something cannot be determined to be true.

In summary, the correct answer choice is (B), as it most accurately expresses a principle of reasoning employed by the argument in the passage.