LSAT Explanation PT 29, S4, Q9: Because of increases in the price

LSAT Question Stem

The prediction that ends the passage would be most seriously called into question if it were true that in the last few years 

Logical Reasoning Question Type

This is a Weaken question. 

Correct Answer

The correct answer to this question is D. 

LSAT Question Complete Explanation

First, let's analyze the argument in the passage. The passage states that due to the increase in oil prices and government policies promoting energy conservation, the use of oil to heat homes fell by 40 percent, and many homeowners switched to natural gas for heating. This switch required an investment in equipment, and as a result, the author predicts that a significant switch back to oil in the near future is unlikely. The conclusion of the argument is that a significant switch back to oil is unlikely.

Now, the question type is a Weaken question, which asks us to find the answer choice that would most seriously call into question the prediction that a significant switch back to oil in the near future is unlikely.

An "Evaluate" question for this argument could be: "Have there been any recent changes in the cost of oil equipment or the price of heating with oil compared to natural gas?"

Let's discuss each answer choice:

a) This answer choice talks about the price of natural gas remaining constant and the cost of equipment to heat homes with natural gas falling sharply. However, this doesn't provide a reason for homeowners to switch back to oil, so it doesn't weaken the argument.

b) This answer choice talks about the price of home heating oil remaining constant and the cost of equipment to heat homes with natural gas rising sharply. While this may make natural gas less appealing, it doesn't provide a strong reason for homeowners to switch back to oil, so it doesn't effectively weaken the argument.

c) This answer choice talks about the cost of equipment to heat homes with natural gas falling sharply and the price of home heating oil falling to 1970 levels. While this may suggest that oil is becoming more affordable, it doesn't provide a strong reason for homeowners who have already invested in natural gas equipment to switch back to oil, so it doesn't effectively weaken the argument.

d) This is the correct answer. It states that the cost of equipment to heat homes with oil has fallen sharply, and the price of heating with oil has fallen below the price of heating with natural gas. This answer choice provides a strong reason for homeowners to consider switching back to oil, as it is now more affordable and the cost of equipment has decreased. This weakens the argument that a significant switch back to oil is unlikely.

e) This answer choice talks about the use of oil to heat homes continuing to decline and the price of heating oil falling to 1970 levels. While this may suggest that oil is becoming more affordable, it doesn't provide a strong reason for homeowners who have already invested in natural gas equipment to switch back to oil, so it doesn't effectively weaken the argument.

In conclusion, answer choice D is the correct answer because it provides a strong reason for homeowners to consider switching back to oil, weakening the argument that a significant switch back to oil is unlikely.