LSAT Explanation PT 44, S2, Q14: The economy is doing badly. First,

LSAT Question Stem

Which one of the following inferences is most strongly supported by the information above? 

Logical Reasoning Question Type

This is a Most Strongly supported question. 

Correct Answer

The correct answer to this question is D. 

LSAT Question Complete Explanation

Let's begin by analyzing the passage. The author concludes that the economy is doing badly because of two indicators: the real estate slump and low car sales. The author acknowledges that if only one of these factors were present, it would still be consistent with a healthy economy. However, the presence of both factors together makes it more probable that the economy is indeed doing badly.

To better understand this, let's use a simple example. Imagine two friends, Alice and Bob, who are trying to determine if it's going to rain today. They consider two factors: dark clouds and strong winds. If they see only dark clouds or only strong winds, they think it's possible but not certain that it will rain. However, if they see both dark clouds and strong winds, they believe it's more likely to rain.

Now, let's represent the logic in the passage using formal logic notation:

1. (R & C) -> B

2. /B -> (/R v /C)

Here, R represents the real estate slump, C represents low car sales, and B represents a bad economy.

The question type for this problem is Most Strongly Supported (MSS), which asks us to find the inference that is most strongly supported by the information in the passage.

Let's analyze each answer choice:

a) If car sales are at their lowest in years, then it is likely that the economy is doing badly.

This choice is incorrect because it suggests that low car sales alone are sufficient to indicate a bad economy. The passage tells us that either low car sales or a real estate slump alone is consistent with a good economy, which means a slump in either variable alone would be insufficient to establish the likelihood of a bad economy.

b) If the economy is doing badly, then either the real estate market or the car sales market is not healthy.

This choice is incorrect because it reverses the author's assertion. The passage states that poor performance in real estate and car sales is likely to indicate a poor economy, not that success in those markets guarantees a good economy. This choice is a Mistaken Reversal.

c) If the real estate market is healthy, then it is likely that the economy as a whole is healthy.

This choice is incorrect because the passage only states that a poorly performing real estate or car sales market is consistent with a good economy. This does not mean that a healthy economy is likely, only that it is possible.

d) If the economy is in a healthy state, then it is unlikely that the real estate and car sales markets are both in a slump.

This is the correct answer choice, as it reflects the logic from the contrapositive diagrammed earlier. A healthy economy means that at least one of the two variables (real estate & car sales) is not faltering, which rules out the possibility that both indicators are performing poorly.

e) The bad condition of the economy implies that both the real estate and the car sales markets are doing badly.

This choice is incorrect because it provides another example of a Mistaken Reversal. The passage tells us that poor performance in both real estate and car sales is sufficient to conclude that a bad economy is likely, which is much different from claiming that these factors are the necessary variables if we actually know that the economy is doing badly.